Forecasting Uncertainty

Forecasting uncertainty has been one of the core human endeavors since antiquity, when farmers wanted to know how the weather will be like for their crops, the sailors needed to know how to chart unknown seas and rulers wanted to know the fate of their upcoming conflicts and wars. In more recent times, forecasting uncertainty has been at the core of business and financial investments, at the core of political elections or at the core of risk assesments. Whether we like it or not, what we expect about the future largely drives our decisions today. Forecasting uncertainty is not about astrology or answering definitive questions about the world, but about understanding trends and events probabilistically, locally and globally.

"The future isn't what it used to be." (SELF-ANNIHILATING SENTENCES - Saul Gorn's Compendium Of Rarely Used Cliches, 1985)